Peak Awareness

Introduction

2010-01-12T01:00:00.010Z

Shortly after hearing about peak oil in mid 2008, I reached the conclusion that it may well be more urgent than climate change, and have since been studying potential responses for communities (bottom-up) and authorities (top-down). Whilst many advocate only one or the other, I believe both are essential, and I'm thoroughly enjoying dividing my time between the two. In mid 2009 I joined the steering group of Transition City Manchester, who are part of the Transition Network, reputedly the fastest growing grass roots movement in the world. I encourage anyone wanting to do something about peak oil, to check where your nearest Transition Initiative is, and to either get involved, or start your own.

As well as taking action at the community level, I feel there is much constructive work to be done at local and national Government level. I began lobbying Manchester City Council in May 2009, and after just two visits to my local councillor's surgery I was given a place on the Council's Environmental Advisory Panel, through which I have been able to build up many links. My interactions with them are becoming increasingly meaningful and I am optimistic about persuading them to adopt a Peak Oil Resolution or to form a Peak Oil Task Force, as several other cities around the world have already done.

On the 27th October 2009 I went for the first time to a meeting of the All Party Parliamentary Group On Peak Oil And Gas (APPGOPO) at the House of Commons. I was curious to find out why so much UK policy making, seems to overlook the valuable information on Appgopo's website (www.appgopo.org.uk). The meeting consisted of an excellent presentation by Steve Sorrell (UKERC) of what has been described by retired CIA analyst Tom Whipple as "clearly the most sophisticated report (on world oil depletion) of any that has been done so far". The report had been released only that month, yet out of around 50 people in attendance, there was just one MP present, APPGOPO chairman John Hemming.
At the local government level, attention seems to be equally lacking. I have had to explain what peak oil is to most of the councillors I have met, and Nottingham and Bristol councils are about the only two cities in Britain who have officially acknowledged the issue.
This is at a time when warnings of the grave risk to the UK and world economy, posed by peak oil, are coming from oil companies, universities, banks, and companies such as Virgin Group, Stagecoach Group and Yahoo.

I have been lobbying for some months now, and trying to locate the political blockades preventing the spread of peak oil awareness and debate. Unlike some, I am convinced that:

1. Politicians genuinely unaware of peak oil can be made aware
2. Politicians aware of peak oil can be supported and encouraged to take meaningful action
3. Politicians obstructing the growing awareness of peak oil can be identified and challenged
4. Politicians are human beings

Whilst there are still enormous question marks over what the best alternative energy strategies will be (these may vary from county to county, city to city), what we can know for absolute certain is that peak oil is not receiving anything like the attention it deserves, and this lack of attention is an enormous obstacle to dealing with it. However, the urgency of the situation, the strength of the evidence, and the fact that Irish and Australian politicians are now openly speaking about, and forming policy around peak oil, mean that for those lobbying the UK authorities on this issue, the wind is firmly behind us.

Rather than training you to win future arguments, I hope this website will assist you simply in broadcasting the result of arguments that are now well and truly over. If they haven't already, global oil and gas production are going to peak, the UK is unprepared, and many of our leaders, especially at council level, are oblivious to the implications.

Through learning, raising awareness, and leading others to action, we can not only help to create a safer, saner and less oil and gas addicted world, but in the process we can meet fascinating people, develop skills, gain a birds-eye view of our deeply unique place in human history, and also "step up" to our now unprecedented ability to shape the rest of it.

- Joel Prittie, January 2010

UK Government

2010-01-11T20:22:00.014Z

This is a history of peak oil, focussed primarily on it's journey through British Parliament. It does not claim to be comprehensive, but it is the most comprehensive history of it's type that I am aware of.

1956
American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert posits that US conventional oil production will reach an all time peak between 1965 and 1970, before entering a terminal decline, and that global oil production will peak around 1995.(1)

1970
US oil production reaches an all time high from where it has declined ever since.(2)

1976
In a 1976 TV interview, Hubbert says that the actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the peak for perhaps 10 years.(3)

1999
UK oil production reaches the highest point it ever has and ever will.(4)

February 2005
The Hirsch report, commissioned by the US Department of Energy, recommends a massive crash mitigation strategy to begin preferably 20 years in advance of peak oil.(5)

June 2007
British members of Parliament form the All Party Parliamentary Group On Peak Oil and Gas (APPGOPO), to review estimates of future oil production and consider the consequences of declining world oil production for the UK and world economy. The group is chaired by John Hemming MP (Birmingham, Yardley). As of 2008 the group consisted of 25 MPs and 7 peers. The group has no statutory powers.(6)

October 2007
The Government respond to a petition calling for the Prime Minister to acknowledge peaking oil and gas production as an issue saying:
The Government fully recognises that there is uncertainty around the issue of future global oil and gas production. However, on the balance of the available analysis and evidence, the Government's assessment is that the world's oil and gas resources are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable future.
As the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes in its 2005 publication 'Resources to Reserves: Oil and Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future', the key problem is not the limit of geological oil resources.(7)

8 April 2008
The Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) reply to a Freedom of Information Request from George Monbiot, in which he asks what peak oil contingency plans they have made for the eventuality that global supplies of crude oil might peak between then and 2020.
They reply, “The Government does not feel the need to hold contingency plans specifically for the eventuality of crude oil supplies peaking between now and 2020.”(8)

29 April 2008
Early Day Motion 1453 is tabled by John Hemming MP:
"That this House notes that current movements in energy and food prices are in conformance with the predictions as to what would happen as oil production peaks; and calls for the Government urgently to review its predictions as to when peak oil occurs with a view to determining whether or not urgent policy adjustments are called for."
69 MPs sign (see References below for full list), including former Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell.(9)

May 2008
Oil hits a record $135 a barrel on the 21st. John Hemming says, "The government is failing to address the reality that we are reaching the limits to growth in global oil production. The implications for the way we run our society and economy are profound, but the government refuses even to initiate a contingency study. Rather than making futile appeals to OPEC to raise production, Gordon Brown must recognise that we cannot carry on with the same old assumptions of endless growth in world oil production."(10)
On the 28th Gordon Brown finally acknowledges the reality:
"The cause of rising prices is clear: growing demand and too little supply to meet it both now and - perhaps of even greater significance - in the future... Our strategic interests - reducing energy costs, increasing our energy security, tackling climate change - all now point in the same direction: decreasing dependency on oil."(11)

11 July 2008
The price of oil reaches the unprecedented height of $147.27 a barrel, triggering a collapse in demand, which causes prices to plummet. A year later Senior Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, Richard Heinberg, will label this peak oil day.(12)

13 July 2008
Gordon Brown says:
"We must now leave behind the old wasteful, oil-dependent ways of yesterday and embrace the new cleaner and sustainable energy future of tomorrow... (We must) set ourselves on a new energy path - a path from our economies that are today over-dependent on oil towards the post-oil energy economies of the future... Today our globalised, energy-hungry and warming world requires a shift from oil dependence to sustainable energy... Only with political leadership from all of us will we be able to move towards a new sustainable economy. This is now Britain's goal."(13)

29th July 2008
An online petition created by Chris Jones closes, with 565 signatories. It states, "We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Undertake a reassessment of UK Energy Supplies, in particular evaluate the risk of an imminent peak or plateau in global oil production."(14)

15 September 2008
The Government responds to Chris Jones' petition:
"The Government’s assessment is that the world’s oil resources are sufficient to prevent global total oil production peaking in the foreseeable future. This is consistent with the assessment made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its recent 2007 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which concludes that proven reserves are already larger than the cumulative production needed to meet rising demand until at least 2030."(15)

3 October 2008
The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is formed to take over some of the functions of the BERR and DEFRA. It is led by the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, the Rt Hon Ed Miliband MP.(16)

20 October 2008
Gordon Brown answers a question from John Hemming.
John Hemming: The recent high prices and volatility in the price of oil is symptomatic of geological constraints on supply—also known as peak oil and gas. Do the Government have a view as to when peak production will occur globally, and does the Prime Minister believe that it is worth doing that research?
The Prime Minister: The hon. Gentleman is right to raise the question of supplies of oil for the future. That is concerning all countries. Not only do we need stability of supply, but, even as we move into nuclear and renewables, we will need a constantly rising supply of oil. That means that we must ensure that the demand for oil is met by supply, otherwise the price will go up again. We are, therefore, looking at what supply of oil there is, and we are trying in the North sea to increase the production that is available from some of the smaller marginal fields as well as from some of the fields that have previously been explored and developed but not exhausted.(17)

December 2008
The Government's Energy Markets Outlook 2008 is published, with a two page section on peak oil, available for free download.(18)
It acknowledges that some scientists and analysts think the peak could happen soon. They say the UK is less vulnerable than other G7 countries as we consume the least amount of oil per $1000 worth of output, and also that other policies currently being pursued "... are likely to improve the UK's resilience against peak oil".

23 March 2009
The Government respond to another Freedom of Information Request from George Monbiot:
“With sufficient investment, the Government does not believe that global oil production will peak between now and 2020 and consequently we do not have any contingency plans specific to a peak in oil production.”(19)

22 May 09
In a discussion with Rob Hopkins and Peter Lipman of the Transition Network, UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Miliband says of peak oil:
"I don't think it's a thing we don't need to think about. What's interesting if you think about the history of the debate of peak oil as I understand it is - Climate change I think makes the debate about peak oil a bit of a second order debate because we have to start making the Transition anyway - and we have to start making the Transition to low carbon forms of energy in any case, whether you think that peak oil's in 2020, 2030 or 2040. Now I think we're in a transition economy, and oil and gas are part of the transition.
I don't need to have the debate about peak oil and the precise date of peak oil, the truth is it is difficult to pin down, to know that we've got to make the transition as quickly as possible."(20)

June 2009
Ed Miliband is challenged on peak oil in a Q&A session
arcitechton:
"Hi Ed. Will the government develop an energy plan, like those in David MacKay's book? I know state planning may seem a bit USSR and not very New Labour, but we need to make sure that we have enough energy to power a civilised existence as oil and gas production peak.
Also, does the government have a plan to manage the transition away from oil as production peaks and it becomes unaffordable. There are some very good things the government is doing with regard to this - electrifying the railways for example - but does the government have an overall strategy for urgently transforming our transport system so that civilisation doesn't collapse when petrol costs £100/litre?"
Ed Miliband:
"I agree with the point. We need a 2050 roadmap. That's part of what our summer white paper will be doing so watch this space. And we must make the transition from fossil fuels."
Later in the same session:
DavidASchmavid:
"Come on Ed, the first comment asked about oil. Don't dodge the question. come on. come on."
Ed Miliband:
"David - marks for persistence. Whether we run out of oil or not, we need to make the transition to low carbon as quickly as we can. The material I have seen suggests that peak oil estimates in the coming few years are wide of the mark. But in a way that isn't the issue. We need to transition for climate change reasons..."(21)

15 July 2009
The Government publish an energy white paper The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan(22). Whilst acknowledging that UK oil and gas production is in decline, the report entirely misses out the issue of global peak oil, and seems to be largely based on the assumption that world oil supply can grow up to 2020.(23)

21 July 2009
The Government reply to a Freedom of Information Request asking what "material" Ed Miliband was reffering to in his June Q&A session (mentioned above), when he said, "The material I have seen suggests that peak oil estimates in the coming few years are wide of the mark.
"...
The Secretary of State's thinking on peak oil is likely to have been influenced by a broad range of material and as such, we have had difficulty identifying the information that you wish to receive. Having discussed the issue with the Secretary of State's private office, I have been told that he signed off standard lines on peak oil not long before making the comment referred to above. I have attached these below and provided information explaining the Department's position. If this is not the information you wished to receive, I may still be able to help. However, I would need to be able to narrow the scope of the request, for example by specifying the general category and source of the material you want, and the timeframe over which the Secretary of State would have seen it.
An explanation of the Department's thinking on peak oil is contained on pp.109-110 in Chapter 7 of the Energy Markets Outlook 2008. You can access this document online at http://decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/markets/outlook/outlook.aspx
I have also attached the standard lines that the Secretary of State saw before making the above comment. Please note that we have exempted the names of junior officials under section 40 of the FOI Act as this constitutes personal data within the meaning of the Data Protection Act. The individuals do not carry out public facing roles and are not sufficiently senior to be held publicly accountable for the policy areas they administer, nor have they consented for their names to be provided in this context.

The Secretary of State was also made aware of the key conclusions from the World Energy Outlook 2008 and The Oil Crunch: Securing the UK's Energy Future around the time of their respective publications..."(24)
View the FoI Request and the whole of this letter here.

11 August 2009
APPGOPO release their second report entitled Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs): A Policy Framework for Peak Oil and Climate Change(25). The report sets out a strategy for equitably reducing dependence on fossil fuels and carbon emissions. APPGOPO chairman John Hemming MP says the UK Government remain unprepared for peak oil. "The evidence is now strong that peak oil is either upon us or just over the horizon. Even the International Energy Agency accepts that an oil supply crunch seems to be on its way. The UK government should urgently consider the TEQs system, as I believe it's the only comprehensive and fair way to tackle climate change and the coming oil crisis."(26)

December 2009
The Government release their Energy Markets Outlook (EMO) 2009(27). Whilst pointing out that UK oil production peaked in 1999 and is now in decline(28), the oil section contains no mention of global peak oil, unlike 2008's EMO.(29)

20 January 2010
Another petition created by Chris Jones, (creator of the 2008 petition) closes with 326 signatories. This one urges the Government to respond to the UK Energy Research Centre report, which finds a significant risk of peak oil occurring before 2020.(30)

22 March 2010
Members of DECC and the Department of Transport hold discussions around how soon and in what form Peak Oil will occur. The summit, entitled "Policy Response to Potential Future Oil Supply Constraints", was held at the Energy Institute in London, and speakers included Rob Hopkins of the Transition Network. An energy minister's rounding up of the days discussions included the following two points:
- The exact date of peak oil is an academic extraction, what matters is it's inevitability.
- There is a high risk of its happening as soon as we come out of the recession, in 3 or 4 years time.(31)

April 2010
In their annual report known as JOE (Joint Operating Environment), the United States Joint Forces Command warn that “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.”(32)

References:

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak
2. Ibid.
3. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY
4. DECC, Energy Markets Outlook, 2009, Page 98, http://decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/markets/outlook/outlook.aspx
5. Free download of the report available here: http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
Summary viewable here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report
6. http://www.appgopo.org.uk/
7. http://theoildrum.com/node/3045
8. BERR, 8th April 2008. Response to FoI request, Ref 08/0091.
9. http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=35715&SESSION=891
The 69 MPs who signed were:
Diane Abbott, George Andrew, Norman Baker, Alan Beith, Roger Berry, Tom Brake, Colin Breed, Annette Brooke, Jeremy Browne, David Chaytor, Harry Cohen, Colin Burgon, Gregory Campbell, Manzies Campbell, Martin Caton, Michael Clapham, Katy Clark, Jeremy Corbyn, Ann Cryer, Edward Davey, Jim Dobbin, David Drew, Bill Etherington, Timothy Farron, Lynne Featherstone, Paul Flynn, Don Foster, Neil Gerrard, Julia Goldsworthy, David Heath, Mike Hancock, Nick Harvey, John Hemming, Lady Hermon, Kate Hoey, Jim Hood, Kelvin Hopkins, Chris Huhne, Brian Jenkins, Paul Keetch, Susan Kramer, John Leech, David Lepper, Chris McCafferty, Dr William McCrea, Alasdair McDonnell, John McDonnell, Alan Meale, Greg Mulholland, Lembit Opik, Sandra Osborne, Alan Reid, Iris Robinson, Daniel Rogerson, Adrian Sanders, Alan Simpson, Marsha Singh, Geraldine Smith, Andrew Stunell, Matthew Taylor, Richard Taylor, Emily Thornberry, Paul Truswell, Rudi Vis, Robert Walter, Mark Williams, Stephen Williams, Richard Younger-Ross.
10. http://appgopo.org.uk//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=30
11. 'We must all act together', Gordon Brown, The Guardian, May 28th 2008, http://tinyurl.com/4lbnm7
12. http://www.postcarbon.org/blog-post/40804-peak-oil-day
13. 'Speech to the Union for the Mediterranean Summit', July 13th 2008, http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page16313
14. http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/Oil-Depletion
15. http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page16833
16. http://www.decc.gov.uk/
17. http://appgopo.org.uk//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37
18. DECC, Energy Markets Outlook 2008, p109-110 Chapter 7, http://decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/markets/outlook/outlook2008/outlook2008.aspx
19. DECC, 23rd March 2009. Response to Freedom of Information request, Ref 09/0277.
20. Just audio (Quote occurs at 7:06):
http://www.traydio.com/UserConsole/ViewArticle.aspx?Title=Ed_Miliband_talks_to_Peter_Lipman_and_Rob_Hopkins_of_the_Transition_Network&ArticleID=2327
Article and audio:
http://www.energy-performance-certificates.org/blog/ed-miliband-peak-oil-second-order-debate
21. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2009/jun/26/climate-change-carbon-emissions?commentpage=1
22. http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/publications/lc_trans_plan/lc_trans_plan.aspx
23. http://www.odac-info.org/newsletter/2009/07/17
24. DECC, 21st July 09, Response to FoI request, Ref. 09/0889, viewable here:
http://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/what_material_ed_miliband_has_se
The "Oil Crunch" report mentioned here can be accessed from: http://peakoiltaskforce.net/
25. http://www.appgopo.org.uk/documents/APPGOPO_TEQs_2009.pdf
26. http://www.darkoptimism.org/2009/08/14/all-party-parliamentary-teqs-report-rationing-not-carbon-trading
27. http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/UKERCoilreport
28. http://decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/markets/outlook/outlook.aspx
29. Page 98, ibid.
30. DECC, Energy Markets Outlook 2008, p109-110 Chapter 7, http://decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/markets/outlook/outlook2008/outlook2008.aspx
31. http://transitionculture.org/2010/03/24/government-%E2%80%98peak-oil-summit%E2%80%99-starts-the-process-of-government-acknowledging-peak-oil,
http://www.odac-info.org/newsletter/2010/03/26
32. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

Cities

2010-01-11T20:20:00.011Z

Before looking at local authority responses, it's worth noting that the Transition Network has done a lot of work in engaging communities with the challenges of peak oil. Some local authorities are beginning to recognise the value of this, and to work closely with Transition Initiatives.

In the UK, the most advanced local authority in terms of peak oil planning is Bristol whose report, "Building A Positive Future For Bristol After Peak Oil" is available for download here. Bristol Council is due to respond to this report in early 2010. The authors of the report are now keen to ensure it is adopted in a meaningful way.

Nottingham Council passed a motion in December 2008 acknowledging peak oil, some details here.

In October 2007 Stroud's Local Strategic Partnership (LSP) formed a Global Changes Think Tank to consider the twin challenges of climate change and peak oil, with membership drawn from the LSP, The Transition Town Movement and Council officers. According to Transition Network founder Rob Hopkins, Transition Stroud effectively wrote Stroud's food plan, and the Council have said that if it weren't for Transition Stroud they would have to invent all that community infrastructure for the first time.

An article from the Improvement and Development Agency discusses this and other council responses.

Of consolation to UK Councils, is the knowledge that we have nothing approaching the extent of the cheap-oil-dependent suburban sprawl that has developed around US cities.

Many American and Canadian towns and cities have begun boldly putting peak oil preparations in place, rendering them valuable case studies. Lessons that can be learnt from these are mentioned in ODAC's report, and are discussed in great detail in the Post Carbon Institute's book Post Carbon Cities, the first major peak oil guidebook for local authorities.

In April 2006, San Francisco (pop as of 2008 = 744,500) became the first major US city to pass a peak oil resolution recognising the issue of peak oil, and formed a Peak Oil Preparedness Task Force in January 2008. In 2009 San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome ordered all city departments to conduct an audit of unused land, including empty lots, rooftops, windowsills and median strips, that could be turned into community gardens or farms. It was said that, "If the Mayor gets his way, you could just as well get an apple from the corner mart as from a tree growing on the street corner." This is possibly a sign of how an awareness of peak oil can bring forward and accelerate local food strategies which were happening at a slower pace when focussed on climate change.

Other cities and towns that have been proactive include Austin - Texas, Hamilton - Ontario, Oakland - California, Spokane - Washington, Portland - Oregan, Burnaby - British Columbia, Bloomington - Indiana, Westerly - Rhode Island and Franklin Town - New york. These are all discussed on pages 24-27 of ODAC's report. The initial responses tend to involve passing a resolution, forming a task force, and developing an action plan.

Other Countries

2010-01-11T20:19:00.007Z

A handful of countries have now vaguely acknowledged the issue of peak oil in some form, including Germany and France. In 2005 Sweden announced plans to become independent of oil by 2020, and the following year released a report entitled Making Sweden an Oil Free Society. However since a change of government shortly after this, the plans have been dropped.

Israel have made the same 2020 pledge and are working to achieve this with electric car innovators, Better Place, who are also working with Denmark, Australia, California and Hawaii to install large scale electric car infrastructure. Whilst enabling them to reduce their country's oil dependency, it's important these governments acknowledge that if the electricity powering these cars is generated from coal or gas fired power stations, they will not necessarily reduce carbon emissions.

As of 2008 Ireland's coalition government, the minority Green Party were driving a combined climate and peak oil strategy, with heavy investment in public transport, a sustainable biofuels obligation to be introduced 2009, and were considering energy rationing. In June 2009, Green Party leader, and Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, John Gormley, said on RTE TV, ".. we certainly have a generation that has got used to having a good lifestyle, and I'm talking about our kids, who take things I think for granted... I think the whole peak oil situation is going to change things dramatically, globally, and that level of affluence... is just going to disappear. Now I think we need a real debate though about the fixation with economic growth, because that in itself is something that has never, ever, been questioned. If we ask ourselves an honest question; how can you have infinite economic growth on a finite planet? - that is I believe the question as we move forward into the 21st century."
In the same clip, financial consultant Eddie Hobbs describes Ireland's level of peak oil preparedness as "really quite pathetic," and criticizes two recent huge reports on oil supplies and oil shortage contingency plans, which he says include not one sentence dealing with the possibility that we are at peak oil.

The United States federal government does not officially acknowledge peak oil as an imminent threat, despite their Department of Energy commissioning the 2005 Hirsch report, which highlighted the (preferably two) decades of preparation needed to mitigate peak oil. The same year, the US Army Engineer Research and Development Centre (ERDC) released a report which stated, "The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy resources are quickly drawing to a close." Besides president Bush declaring in 2006 that "America is addicted to oil," the reports are widely considered to have been ignored by the Government. The investigative arm of the US Congress, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) also released a report in early 2007 urging the government to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and decline in oil production, claiming the Government was totally unprepared.
In February 2005, Queensland's Andrew McNamara, became the first mainstream Australian politician to openly speak about peak oil. Two years before serving as Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation, he said, "Peak oil is coming—soon—and no alternative energy source available to us today or in the foreseeable future is going to make up the total energy shortfall. The beginning of the end of the oil age is upon us, and it is time to respond fully to that challenge." Mr McNamara also chaired Queensland's Oil Vulnerability Taskforce, assembled to focus on three main areas:
"The first is look at ways to find more conventional fuels - more oil and gas, the second is to look at alternatives and renewable fuels and the third is demand restraint, and again looking at ways in which we can encourage people to use cars less," he said.
The Taskforce report, Queenslands Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices was commissioned in 2005 and was possibly the first report of it's type to be commissioned by any Government in the world.

For further information on how countries are responding to peak oil please see the ASPO websites.

Books

2010-01-11T00:13:00.000Z

Prices correct as of Dec 2009

The Transition Handbook (£8.55 Amazon)
Transition Timeline, (£7.65 Amazon)
Tradable Energy Quotas - David Fleming
Local Food: How To Make It Happen In Your Community - Tamzin Pinkerton & Rob Hopkins (£8.14 Powerswitch)
Future Scenarios: How communities can adapt to peak oil and climate change - David Holmgren 2009 (£5.96 Amazon)
Powerdown: Richard Heinberg (£8.46 Amazon)
The Party's Over: Richard Heinberg
The Last Oil Shock - David Strahan
Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air And The Global Energy Crisis: Jeremy Leggett (£6.47 Powerswitch)
Twilight In The Desert: Matthew Simmons (£10.67 Amazon)
Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (2008) - Kenneth Deffeyes (£8.49 amazon)
Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak (2006) - K Deffeyes (£5.72 Del)
Blood And Oil - Michael Klare (£6.97 Amazon)
The End Of Oil: Paul Roberts (£6.96 Amazon)
Why Your World Is About To Get A Lot Smaller - Jeff Rubin
The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook, Albert Bates, 2006
Peak Oil Prep: Prepare for Peak Oil, Climate Change and Economic Collapse - Mick Winter 2006
The Oil Depletion Protocol - Heinberg (£10.99 Powerswitch)
The End Of Oil - Paul Roberts
Oil Crisis - Colin Campbell
Six Degrees: Mark Lynas
Joanna Macey - "Coming Back To Life: Practices To Reconnect Our Lives, Our World" Jan 1999 (£7.77 Amazon)
Joanna Macey - "World As Lover, World As Self: A Guide To Living Fully In Turbulent Times" Dec 2007 (£13.12 Amazon)
The Last Oil Shock: David Strahan (£12.99 Powerswitch)
Plan B 3.0 Mobilizing to Save Civilization: Lester R Brown (£31 Powerswitch)
Long Descent: A Users Guide To The End Of The Industrial Age - John Michael Greer, Oct 2008 (£8.46 Amazon)
Time's Up: An Uncivilised Solution To A Global Crisis - Keith Farnish, Mar '09 (£6.38 Amazon)
Small Is Possible: Life In A Local Economy - Lyle Estill
Energy Beyond Oil - Paul Mobbs
World Made By Hand - James Howard Kunstler

Poster

2010-01-11T00:07:00.001Z

The Oil Age Poster

This fascinating poster charts the various world events that have punctuated our climb up the oil mountain. Lots of vital information attractively presented.

DVDs

2010-01-10T23:31:00.000Z

Follow links to order from UK suppliers.

In Transition
The End Of Suburbia
The Powerdown Show
The Power Of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil powers
Crude Awakening
Crude Impact
A Farm For The Future - Not available on DVD yet but can be viewed on youtube video here
Oil, Smoke And Mirrors - Dito
Escape From Suburbia (Canadian supplier)
Petro Apocalypse Now
Who Killed The Electric CarJoanna Macey: Work That Reconnects

Reports

2010-01-10T23:21:00.006Z

Many of these are free to download. Many more important reports available from ODAC here.

Preparing For Peak Oil: A Guide For Local Authorities - ODAC

Building A Positive Future For Bristol After Peak Oil

Making Sweden an OIL-FREE Society

Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan

Tradable Energy Quotas Report

UKERC Report

World Energy Outlook - IEA

Hirsch Report "Peaking Of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management"

Uppsala University Report

Industry Peak Oil Task Force Report

Peak Oil Prep

Saving Oil In A Hurry - IEA

Energy Trends And Their Implications For US Army Installations

CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production (GAO)

Articles

2010-01-10T23:09:00.001Z

17/11/05 Robert Hirsch On Peak Oil Mitigation

29/04/06 "Tough Times Ahead For Energy"
14/06/07 Independent, "A World Without Oil"

29/06/07 "IEA - Without Iraqi Oil We'll Be In Deep Trouble By 2015"

07/08/07 CNN Money, "Why Oil Won't Hit $100"

12/11/08 "World Needs Four New Saudi Arabias"

15/12/08 Guardian, "When Will The Oil Run Out"

14/04/09 "Cross Your Fingers And Carry On"

28/05/09 Ed Miliband discussion

29/05/09 Guardian, "Global Warming Causes 300,000 Deaths A Year Says Kofi Annan Think Tank"

03/07/09 "Peak Oil Day"

03/08/09 Independent, "Warning: Oil Supplies Running Out Fast"

14/08/09 "All Party Parliamentary TEQs Report – Rationing, Not Carbon Trading"

16/09/09 "Peak Oil Expected In 2009, Says Maquarie Bank Report"

29/09/09 "Is The Global Think Tank Half Full"

22/10/09 "Peak Oil Crisis: More Reports"

09/11/09 Guardian, "Key Oil Figures Were Distorted"
10/12/09 The Economist, "The Peak Oil Debate"

12/12/09 Guardian, "Oil: future world shortages are being drastically underplayed, say experts"

05/01/10 "Heads In The Sand? Or Why Don't Governments Talk About Peak Oil"

07/01/10 BBC News: "Gas Usage Set To Hit New Records"

22/01/10 "Oil Is Too Important To Burn In Cars"

Online Video Clips

2010-01-10T22:04:00.002Z

Transition Network founder Rob Hopkins TED Talk
Excellent 16 minute talk from Rob Hopkins.

Irish Politicians discuss peak oil
Ireland's Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, John Gormley speaks of peak oil changing things, "...dramatically, globally." - June 2009.

Rob Hopkins on Transition and Peak Oil
More from Rob and a glimpse of Transition Town Totness where it all began.

David Strahan on BBC Newsnight
ODAC Trustee and author of The Last Oil Shock, David Strahan is interviewed. David gives excellent presentations tailored specifically to local authorities on how they can meet the peak oil challenge. Contact ODAC for details.

Monbiot meets Birol
A very important video. Guardian journalist George Monbiot interviews the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol. Many important things about the IEA are revealed here.

Jeremy Leggett - Peak Oil Meets Climate Change
Insightful talk from the Shell and BP commissioned geologist, turned Green Peace campaigner, turned founder of UK based company Solar Century.

Peak Oil - How Big Is The Risk
This clip is from the UK Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security, which consists of Virgin Group, Stagecoach Group, Yahoo and five other UK companies. There's not many online clips of Richard Branson discussing peak oil. To find out more about how he is preparing for peak oil watch the clip on www.virgingalactic.com.

Sustainability And Resource Depletion: Survival Challenge for the 21st Century
Substantial talk by Richard Heinberg, author of Powerdown, and The Oil Depletion Protocol, and fellow of the excellent Post Carbon Institute.

Richard Heinberg - Relocalisation
Interesting two part look at the general concept and specific challenges of relocalising our lives.

David Holmgren: Retrofitting The Suburbs
This is a fascinating ten part talk on the variety of ways in which suburban inhabitants could respond to peak oil, and looks at the effects these actions are likely to have. Holmgren's excellent talk begins at 5:35 in part 1.

Chris Martenson Peak Oil Crash Course
Comprehensive 18 minute overview and introduction.

Peak Oil (November 09)
An insightful look at some specifics of the International Energy Agency's 2009 report. One crucial thing revealed here is that whilst the IEA's 2020 forecast is contingent on sustained investment in the oil industry, that investment is thought to have already dropped by $90 billion dollars in 2009 alone, the first dip for a decade.

Jared Diamond discusses peak oil, June 2008
The professor and author discusses peak oil.

Gas Usage Set To Hit New Records, January 2010
According to Energy Beyond Oil author Paul Mobbs, the UK has just 3 days worth of gas storage at any time, and our supply from the North Sea is decreasing. This makes cold spells increasingly difficult to deal with.

Websites

2010-01-10T21:54:00.006Z

www.theyworkforyou.com
www.writetothem.com
www.whatdotheyknow.com
www.odac-info.org
www.appgopo.org.uk
www.postcarbon.org
www.transitiontowns.org
www.transitionculture.org
www.powerswitch.org.uk
www.darkoptimism.org
www.davidstrahan.com
www.theoildrum.com
www.energybulletin.net
www.fraw.org.uk/ebo/index.shtml
www.teqs.net
peakoiltaskforce.net
www.localpower.org.uk
www.peakmoment.tv
www.communitysolution.org
www.relocalize.net
www.beyondpeak.com
www.drydipstick.com
www.virgingalactic.com

ASPO - Association for the Study of Peak Oil
www.peakoil.net
aspo-usa.com
aspocanada.ca
www.aspo-ireland.org
www.aspo-australia.org.au
www.aspo-spain.org

Top six Resources

2010-01-10T21:43:00.007Z

There are quite a few books on peak oil, but peak oil "lobbying" and city planning that takes peak oil into account, are relatively new areas, which means there aren't an abundance of resources available. On the plus side, this makes it a lot easier to identify the best ones.
The following six resources are (at time of writing) utterly unique.

1. ODAC newsletter
One thing that makes peak oil lobbying so exciting is that it is about as "live" an issue as you can get. The situation is unfolding with enormous speed. The excellent Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) have a team of people scouring the UK media for the latest peak oil and gas related news, which they condense into a brilliant and free weekly email, available from their website.

2. "The Transition Handbook"
Probably the most comprehensive and inspiring single resource on how our species can respond to the twin challenges of peak oil and climate change. It looks primarily at grass roots community responses, based on the fact that we needn't wait for the authorities to act before we do. The depth of thought, vision and humour, also make it an enlightening read for those going straight to the authorities.

3. ODAC's Report - "Preparing for Peak Oil"
As far as I'm aware, ODAC is the only organisation specifically lobbying councils in the UK about Peak Oil. As well as their weekly email, ODAC have produced an invaluable report for local authorities called "Preparing for Peak Oil: A Guide For Local Authorities," which can be downloaded free from their website.

4. Book - "Post Carbon Cities: Planning For Energy And Climate Uncertainty"
The pioneers of peak oil lobbying are the Post Carbon Institute in America. Their excellent 2007 Book, "Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty," offers an in depth and professional perspective of the challenges facing local authorities. It contains valuable sections on Making a Government Statement On Peak Oil and Establishing a Peak Oil Task Force.

5. "Peak Oil for Policymakers" DVD
Author of the Post Carbon Cities book, Daniel Lerch, gives an excellent half hour presentation on this DVD, aimed specifically at the council level. His appropriate vocabulary and professional delivery, combined with the clarity and intelligence behind his presentation make this a key resource. There are talks from Richard Heinberg and Terry Backer on the DVD as well.

6. Powerswitch Forum
The powerswitch website has a UK based forum unlike any other. There are numerous discussions about peak oil taking place with over 1500 registered users, including APPGOPO chairman John Hemming MP.

Peak Warnings

2010-01-10T21:30:00.002Z

"It's quite a simple theory, and one that every beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone."
Colin Campbell, Founder, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.

"Unfortunately, mankind better get ready to live in a peak oil world because we believe the ‘peak’ is now behind us."
Financial advisors Raymond James & Associates, 2009

"In total our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts."
Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, UPPSALA University, 2009

"The rate of decline of production is accelerating."
UK Energy Research Centre October 2009

"Even if growth in global demand was at zero for the next 22 years, in order to compensate the decline in the existing fields, we need to increase the production by around 45 million barrels per day, which is the equivalent to bringing four new Saudi Arabias to the markets."
Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist, Nov 2008

"Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand."
James Van de Veer, CEO of Shell, 22 January 2008

"As easily and cheaply available oil supplies fall off, high oil prices will become a long-term trend having profound direct and indirect economic impacts."
Industry Peak Oil Task Force, formed by Virgin Group, Stagecoach Group, Yahoo and five other UK companies, 2008

"All in all, the likelihood of the lights going out in Europe at some point over the next 20 years has never been greater."
Nigel Lawson, former British Energy Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer, 'Viewpoint: Darkness Looms', Time, February 2008

"Underpinning the long-term price of oil is the fact that the world is consuming over 30 billion barrels a year and replacing only a fraction of this with new discoveries."
James W. Buckee, President and CEO of Talisman Energy Inc., 13 March 2007

"We're seeing the beginnings of a bidding war for Middle Eastern oil between east and west."
Dave O'Reilly, CEO of Chevron, 15 February 2008

"In the longer run, unless we take serious steps to prepare for the day that we can no longer increase production of conventional oil, we are faced with the possibility of a major economic shock - and the political unrest that would ensue,"
Dr. James Schlesinger, former US Energy Secretary, 16 November 2005

"We should not cling to crude down to the last drop - we should leave oil before it leaves us. That means new approaches must be found soon... The really important thing is that even though we are not yet running out of oil, we are running out of time."
Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency, 2 March 2008

"The easy, cheap oil is over. Peak oil is looming."
Shokri Ghanem, head of Libya's National Oil Corporation, 8 June 2008

"Currently the (UK) Government places climate change as the first priority for policymaking, followed by energy security, with peak oil in last place. In contrast, the Taskforce analysis is that peak oil is more of an immediate threat to the economy and people’s lives than climate change, grave as that threat is too. A rapidly falling supply of oil is likely to hit us before the worst impacts of the greenhouse effect. The Government needs urgently to reflect this threat in their analysis and planning."
Industry Peak Oil Task Force, formed by Virgin Group, Stagecoach Group, Yahoo and five other UK companies, 2008

"America is addicted to oil."
President Bush, 2006

"When the BNP does win political power Peak Oil will not be something that we can postpone. It will be happening at the very time that we come to power. In fact it may well be an important catalyst that helps us to win political power because we are the ones talking about it now."
- bnp.org.uk/peakoil/politics.htm

"If Iraqi production does not rise exponentially by 2015, we have a very big problem, even if Saudi Arabia fulfils all it's promises. The numbers are very simple, there's no need to be an expert."
Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, IEA, June 2007

"This is our view - capacity has pretty much peaked in the sense that declines equal new resources.”
Macquarie Bank, 2009

"The world's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically, socially."
WEO 2008, opening statement.

"One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over.... (M)any of the world's oil and gas fields are maturing. And new energy discoveries are mainly occurring in places where resources are difficult to extract, physically, economically, and even politically."
Chevron's "Will You Join Us" advertising campaign, Feb 2006

"The evidence is now strong that peak oil is either upon us or just over the horizon." John Hemming MP, APPGOPO Chairman, 2009

"The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy resources are quickly drawing to a close."
Donald Fournier and Eileen Westervelt, US Army Corps of Engineers, "Energy Trends and Their Implication for US Army Installations", Sept 2005

"The prospect of a peak in oil production presents problems of global proportions whose consequences will depend critically on our preparedness. The consequences would be most dire if a peak occurred soon, without warning, and were followed by a sharp decline in oil production because alternative energy sources, particularly for transportation, are not yet available in large quantities. Such a peak would requite sharp reductions in oil consumption, and the competition for increasingly scarce energy would drive up prices, possibly to unprecedented levels, causing severe economic damage."
GAO Report: "CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production," 2007.

“UK energy supplies are seriously overstretched. We have got away with it so far but surely the energy policy of a major economy should not rely on ‘getting away with it’.”
- Sir Digby Jones, CBI Director General.

"The (UK) government is failing to address the reality that we are reaching the limits to growth in global oil production. The implications for the way we run our society and economy are profound, but the government refuses even to initiate a contingency study. Rather than making futile appeals to OPEC to raise production, Gordon Brown must recognise that we cannot carry on with the same old assumptions of endless growth in world oil production"
John Hemming MP, 2008

"I keep no secret from you, that when there were some new finds, I told them, 'No, leave it in the ground. With some grace from God our children will need it.'"
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, 12 April 2008

"Pure market economics will never solve this problem. Markets do not account for the hidden and indirect costs of oil dependence. Businesses focussed on the highest return on investment are not always in a position to implement new solutions, many of which depend on technologies and fuels that cannot currently compete with the marginal cost of producing a barrel of oil.
Most Important of all, the marketplace alone will not act preemptively to mitigate the enormous damage that would be inflicted by a sudden, serious and sustained price increase. Government leadership is absolutely necessary."
Frederick Smith, Fedex CEO, and P.X. Kelly, retired U.S. General, in Are We Ready For the Next Oil Shock, Washington Post 11 August 2006.

"...(E)nergy is the albatross of U.S. national Security... (T)here is not a full appreciation of our economic vulnerability..."
Senator Richard G. Lugar (R-IN), address to the Brookings Institution, 13 March 2006.

"Because we have high demand at the moment, this is what creates price volatility. It could be disruption from many areas, like refining, transport or production...It is not just one area but all of them combined. This tightness means there is no cushion in the marketplace if anything goes wrong."
Muhammed Ali Zainy, Centre of Global Energy Studies. No Escape From Oil Price Volatility, Alijazeera.net, 9 June 2005.

This problem is like nothing that I have ever seen in my lifetime and the more you think about it and the more you look at the numbers, the more uneasy any observer gets. It's so easy to sound alarmist, and I fear that part of what I'm saying may sound alarmist, but there simply is no question that the risks here are beyond anything that any of us have ever dealt with. And the risks to our economies and our civilization are enormous. And people don't want to hear that. I don't want to think about that. That's a very uncomfortable thing to think about. And I will tell you that it took some time after that realization set in to be able to emerge and try to be positive and constructive about this problem. This is a really, incredibly difficult, and incredibly severe problem.
Robert Hirsch, interview with David Room, Nov 2005.

"It's an enormous undertaking. It really is staggering, to recognise just what (Peak Oil) means for society as a whole, and in particular your own jurisdiction."
Dave Rollo, Councilmember, City of Bloomington, Indiana.

"To simply relegate energy planning to a nice tidy chapter where we promote solar panels and biofuels, while turning around and promulgate the same old tired assumptions of growth-dependent, auto-centric, single use zoning does a great disservice to our allegedly 'forward looking' profession and society in general."
Patrick Ford, Planner, Mendocino County, California

Peak Oil Crash Course For Those In Authority - January 2010

2010-01-04T20:45:00.013Z

This course assumes a basic understanding of what peak oil is. It's aim is to inform leaders at local and national level, specifically in the UK. There is strong evidence that the impacts of peak oil will be felt in the UK before the impacts of climate change, meaning it is no longer appropriate to deal with the former, by focussing on the latter. Whilst the challenges of climate change are openly discussed around the world, there is a near universal silence on the issue of peak oil, even at government level, and this needs to be addressed. It is hoped that greater awareness of peak oil will lead to serious consideration of such measures as Peak Oil Resolutions, The Oil Depletion Protocol, Peak Oil Task Forces, Tradable Energy Quotas, the decentralisation of energy infrastructure and food production, and the support of Transition Initiatives, to name a few.

1. Why Peak Oil Deserves Our Attention
- Hirsch Report
In 2005 the US Department of Energy commissioned a report entitled "Peaking Of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management," commonly known as the "Hirsch Report". The opening section stated that the challenge of peak oil was such that, "... without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented." The report recommended a massive crash mitigation program to begin 20 years in advance of peak oil.(1)
- IEA forecast
In deciding their energy strategy, the UK government rely heavily on forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA). In December 2008 the IEA's chief economist Fatih Birol, presented some revelatory news, "Assuming that OPEC will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau."(2)
If both Hirsch and the IEA are correct, we are (at time of writing) 10 years behind schedule in peak oil mitigation, and this information alone raises serious concerns over the UK government's virtual silence on peak oil.
- Lack of contingency plans
As well as being unprepared for peak oil in 2020, the UK government have admitted to holding no contingency plans for peak oil occurring before then. This was revealed in the following reply, to a Freedom of Information Request from George Monbiot, dated 23 March 2009: “With sufficient investment, the Government does not believe that global oil production will peak between now and 2020 and consequently we do not have any contingency plans specific to a peak in oil production.”(3)
- Meanwhile...
A report from the UK Energy Research Centre sees a significant risk of peak oil before 2020(4). A Morgan and Stanley report sees much of the scheduled incremental oil capacity up to 2015 unlikely to be achieved due to technical, financial and political setbacks(5). Chief Executive Officer of Total SA has predicted an oil and gas crisis around 2015(6). A report from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) warns of "dire consequences" if oil production peaks soon and is followed by a sharp decline(7). A report from the UK Industry Peak Oil Task Force, formed by Virgin Group, Stagecoach Group, Yahoo and five other UK companies says peak oil will come by 2013 and that impacts will arrive before those of climate change(8). A report from the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Centre says peak oil looks likely to be imminent(9). A report from UPPSALA University says "...global oil production has very probably passed it's maximum..."(10) A report from Australian investment bank Macquarie says global oil production capacity peaked in 2009(11). Financial advisors Raymond James & Associates said in May 2009, "Unfortunately, mankind better get ready to live in a peak oil world, because we believe the peak is already behind us."(12)
- Falling Investment
The IEA's World Energy Outlook, released November 2009 projects that worldwide upstream oil and gas capital expenditure would have fallen by $90 billion in 2009, the first fall in this area for a decade(13). Whether or not this $90 billion drop constitutes the "Timely" and "Sufficient" investment spoken of by the IEA and UK Government above, is now a crucial question in determining the validity of their 2020 forecast, and also the date of peak oil. If it does not, then it is entirely possible that we passed peak oil in July 2008, when global crude oil production reached a record high of 74.8 million barrels a day(14).
There are still lots of things that can be done to reduce the impact peak oil will have, but a prerequisite to this action is a greater awareness of the situation. The challenges of peak oil will be far easier to deal with if we engage with them proactively rather than reactively.

2. Brief History
- Hubbert Peak Theory
In 1956, geoscientist M. King Hubbert proposed that US oil production would roughly follow a bell shaped curve, reaching a peak somewhere between 1965 and 1970, before entering a state of permanent decline. Hubbert was ridiculed right up until the early 70's, when it became clear he was right and that US oil production had peaked in 1970. Since then the US has produced less and less oil each year, and is now precariously dependent on the middle east for oil.(15)
- UK Peak Oil
UK oil production peaked in 1999(16) and according to the Royal Bank of Scotland, Oil & Gas Index - February 2008, our production has already dropped to half what it was then. UK natural gas production has also peaked and government forecasts show that up to 90% of Britain's gas will be imported by 2020(17).
- Plateau since 2005
Despite technological advances, and higher than ever prices providing incentive for oil companies to produce more, world oil production has seen no significant growth since 2005.(18)

3. Further Evidence that we have reached the peak
- Oil price volatility
The Hirsch report said that, "As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically"(19). In January 2008 crude oil was $90 a barrel, in July 2008 it reached the unprecedented height of $147 a barrel, and by Dec 2008 it was back down to $40 a barrel(20). Volatility on this scale has not been seen before.(21)
- 2008 food riots.
In 2008 rising food and fuel prices caused food riots in countries that had never previously had them.(22)
- Discovery peak in 60's.
It's easy to assume that future discoveries of oil could go up or down and that no one can really predict this. This is true, to an extent, but when we consider how much of the world has now been explored for oil, and combine this with a study of past discovery trends, our ability to predict future discoveries is drastically enhanced. A little known fact, is that globally speaking, despite enormous developments in discovery technology, significantly less oil has been discovered every decade since the 60's(23). This suggests the all time peak in production, which normally follows peak discovery in a region by around 40 years, is close, if not passed. The world has been using more oil than it's been discovering since the 80's, and the gap between the two has grown considerably.(24)
- Majority of exporting countries passed peak
64 of the world's oil producing countries are thought to have passed their all time peak in oil production, and 60 are in terminal decline(25). Production from a few of these passed peak countries, such as Libya, Peru and Iran is currently growing, but is not expected to return to their previous all time highs(26). David Strahan's website (www.davidstrahan.com) contains an interactive map, displaying details of when each country peaked and their top output. According to the oil consultancy energyfiles.com, another 14 countries could peak within the next decade.
- Tiber and Guara
In September 2009 the media made a song and dance about BG's discovery of 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent off the coast of Brazil, known as "Guara" (27). This dwarfed BP's "Tiber" discovery in the US Gulf the week before, also announced to great fanfare(28). Yet despite being described as "supergiant" fields, these hold between them less than two months worth of global oil consumption.(29)
- Mining of Canadian tar sands
Whilst predicting a plateau in conventional oil production by 2020, the IEA say that "unconventional" oil can be used to keep supply growing up to 2030(30). One of these unconventional oils is the Canadian tar sands, our use of which can be considered disastrous on many levels. Arsenic and mercury leak into rivers during the production process, First Nations people living down stream have developed a range of cancers and auto-immune diseases(31), three barrels of water are used to process one barrel of oil(32), an area of forests and marshes the size of England is at risk of being dug up(33), and the Alberta tar sands operation is the worlds biggest single industrial source of carbon emissions in the world(34). On top of all this, the dire amount of energy generated from tar sands production, compared with the vast amount put in (35) makes the enormous attention they are getting from oil companies, a clear and valuable sign of just how short of options they are, and of how likely it is that we are now at the all time peak in conventional oil production.
- Existing fields in depletion
Many of the largest oil fields currently in use are passed their peak production and are depleting fast. In 2008 Dr Robert Hirsch, (Author of the Hirsch report) said, "... to just stay even, which is what we've been doing for the last few years, we have to produce between 3 and 4 million new barrels of oil each year, just to stay constant. That situation gets worse and worse each year."(36) The IEA have recently said that output at existing fields will, "Drop by almost two thirds by 2030."(37)

4. Unreliable Sources
One of the most significant things about the recent increases in oil prices and oil price volatility, is that the world's most respected energy forecasters failed to see it coming. As a result transportation and land use planners throughout the UK (and the world) have made long range infrastructure plans and investments based on wildly inaccurate information. Despite this now being clear those same sources are still being heavily relied upon.
- IEA 2004 Forecast
In their 2004 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted that the average price of oil between 2006 and 2010 would remain flat at around $22 a barrel(38). The report acknowledged uncertainty over the future price of oil, but their "high oil price" scenario forecast saw the average price of oil going no higher than $35 a barrel up until 2050(39). Oil hit $147 a barrel in July 2008 and we entered January 2010 at $76 a barrel.(40)
- DTI 2004 Price Assumptions
The UK's Department for Trade and Industry (DTI) were similarly way off the mark in 2004 with their assumption that the price of oil in 2008 would be between $28 and $46 a barrel. They saw the price then falling to between $20 and $40 a barrel in 2010, and then slowly climbing to between $25 and $45 a barrel in 2020(41). These assumptions were referred to in the Department For Transport's 2004 "Future of Transport - White Paper CM6234".(42)
- EIA 2006 Forecast
In 2006 the US Energy Information Administration, (or EIA. Not to be confused with the IEA) forecasted a central case scenario that saw the price of oil going no higher than $60 a barrel from then until 2030. Their high case scenario rose steadily, reaching around $100 a barrel in 2030, but the price of oil flew well off the top of this chart, just two years after it was produced.(43)
- Why Oil Won't Hit $100
On the 7th Aug 2007, CNN Money, the world's largest business website, featured an article called, "Why Oil Won't Hit $100 A Barrel,"(44) just 5 months before this happened.(45)
- Mixed messages from the IEA
Whilst making statements such as, "The world's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically, socially,"(46) the IEA are also still producing charts that show unconventional oil production rising up to 2030(47). Of the World Energy Outlook 2009, ODAC says, "One is left with the impression that the report does enough to vindicate the agency in the event of any energy crisis while not doing enough to prevent them."(48)
- Whistleblowers article
On 9 Nov 2009, the Guardian carried an article stating that a whistleblower from inside the IEA claimed the US had pressured the organisation to alter it's figures, in order to avoid panic buying. A senior official said, "The US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields, while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves."(49)

Conclusion
The fragility of the world's oil supply is at an all time high. At the same time, the assumptions that oil will be both available and affordable in the future have seeped into virtually every aspect of our lives. If we weren't making these assumptions, we would likely be planning and doing things very differently. Identifying the vulnerabilities these assumptions have created, and replacing them with strategies that reflect the uncertainty of future supplies is an enormous task, but work to help steer us through this process has already begun. The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in the UK, and the Post Carbon Institute in the US have produced valuable resources to assist local authorities in preparing for, and dealing with world oil depletion. Colin Campbell and Richard Heinberg have developed The Oil Depletion Protocol, an international agreement designed to enable governments to work together in reducing their oil dependency (local authorities have also adopted this). The All Party Parliamentary Group On Peak Oil And Gas have proposed a system of Tradable Energy Quotas, designed to provide an incentive for individuals and businesses to reduce consumption to safer levels, as well as a framework for fairly distributing energy once depletion sets in. And the Transition Network have done an incredible amount of work envisaging life beyond oil, and made enormous progress, inspiring communities and authorities throughout the world to cooperatively engage with the challenge of reducing oil dependency.
As these endeavours demonstrate, there's lots we can be doing. We just need to do it now.

If we collectively plan and act early enough there's every likelihood that we can create a way of living that's significantly more connected, more vibrant and more in touch with our environment than the oil-addicted treadmill that we find ourselves on today. - www.transitiontowns.org

Rebuilding local agriculture and food production, localising energy production, rethinking healthcare, rediscovering local building materials in the context of zero energy building, rethinking how we manage waste, all build resilience and offer the potential for... the greatest economic, social and cultural renaissance we have ever seen. - Transition Network founder, Rob Hopkins.

References:

1. Why Peak Oil Deserves Our Attention
1. Free download of the report available here: http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf Summary viewable here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report
2. Birol's statement occurs at 8:52 in this interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaquBOueqNM
3. Response to Freedom of Information Request ref. 09/0277. Monbiot discusses this in his excellent article, Cross Your Fingers And Carry On, http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2009/04/14/cross-your-fingers-and-carry-on/
4. http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/Global%20Oil%20Depletion
5. http://www.business24-7.ae/Articles/2009/9/Pages/15092009/09162009_675dc95d6a504a4883024898448a2282.aspx
6. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=aah5YRgIJ1q8
7. http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-283
8. http://peakoiltaskforce.net
9. http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13737
10. http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges/en/headline-news/the-peak-of-the-oil-age
11. http://bi-me.com/main.php?id=40318&t=1
12. http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/05/04/peak-oil-global-oil-productions-peaked-analyst-says
13. IEA World Energy Outlook 2009, Worldwide upstream oil & gas capital expenditures chart.
14. http://www.postcarbon.org/blog-post/40804-peak-oil-day

2. Brief History
15. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory
16. http://www.energyfiles.com/eurfsu/uk.html
17. DTI White Paper, Meeting the Energy Challenge, May 2007, page 109, http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file39387.pdf
18. http://lh3.ggpht.com/peakoil.graphs/SJ0OnjH_MlI/AAAAAAAAACQ/B-wSo27SdwQ/Fig_1d_2008_05.jpg

3. Evidence that we have reached the peak
19. See 1.
20. Explore specific oil price data from last 5 years here: http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/market-data/oil.aspx21. Oil price graph 1987-2008: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Brent_Spot_monthly.svg
22. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_world_food_price_crisis
23. http://www.permaculture.org.au/images/peak_oil_discoveries.jpg
24. "Growing Gap" graph: http://www.durangobill.com/RolloverPics/RolloverGap.jpg
25. http://www.davidstrahan.com/map.html
26. See "Important Notice" http://www.davidstrahan.com/map.html
27. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/sep/09/bg-guara-brazil-oil-discovery
28. BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8233504.stm Independent: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bp-hails-giant-oil-find-1780467.html
29. http://www.odac-info.org/newsletter/2009/09/11, More info on Guara and Tiber from Richard Heinberg in this article: http://www.postcarbon.org/blog-post/40998-is-the-global-oil-tank-half-full
30. World Energy Outlook 2009, Oil Production In The Reference Scenario.
31. Environmental Defence, February 2008. Canada’s Toxic Tar Sands: the most destructive project on earth.
http://www.environmentaldefence.ca/reports/pdf/TarSands_TheReport.pdf
32. WWF, 2008. Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel?, Page 27.
http://assets.panda.org/downloads/unconventional_oil_final_lowres.pdf
33. The Urgent Threat To World Peace Is... Canada. G. Monbiot, para 9. http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2009/12/01/the-urgent-threat-to-world-peace-is-%E2%80%A6-canada/
34. Tar Sands: Local Destruction http://peopleandplanet.org/tarsands/localimpacts
35. Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie's Last Fix, Part 2, Chris Nelder. http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/2931
36. Quote used appears at 2:46 in this interview http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=489IEnzg6GU
37. IEA World Energy Outlook 2009, Oil Production in the Reference Scenario chart.

4. Unreliable Sources
38. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2004.asp, p.47.
39. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2004.asp, p.122. Shaun Chamberlain discusses Peak Oil in the UK in chapter 20 of his book The Transition Timeline, 2009, Green Books Ltd.
40. http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/market-data/oil.aspx
41. Page 2: http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file26372.pdf
42. http://www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/previous/fot/
43. E.I.A., Annual Energy Outlook 2006, p. 64. fig. 29. http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/eia_ieo_price.png
44. http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news/economy/cheap_oil/index.htm
45. http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/market-data/oil.aspx
46. IEA World Energy Outlook 2009, opening statement.
47. IEA World Energy Outlook 2009, Oil production in the Reference Scenario chart
48. http://www.odac-info.org/newsletter/2009/11/13
49. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

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2010-01-01T01:57:00.001Z